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Archive for the ‘Forex’ Category.
I missed that fantastic push on the euro at 4pm. Hohum that’s what happens when you don’t watch your charts! I’m still cautious on any movement being pre-emptive to the long-term trend and FOMC minutes. There was an easy 30-50 pips on the 15 minute charts to be had, hopefully you were one of ‘em.
Rather than duplicate my trade details, i’ve shared my spreadsheet of my trade journal:
After my spreads I am negative to even for the week, and up overall by an average of 25 pips per day over the past 7 trading days. On the 13th I had some typical new-traderitice by closing out my earlier trades when i should have let them continue (but that’s hindsight). On the failed eur/usd short where I lost 50 pips – that was really more like a 25-30 pip loss but I was away from my screen. Considering that, I am neutral to positive for the week.
update Wednesday 14th July – after this post I found two opportunities on my charts which improved my day to 70+ pips for Tuesday. Below are my trade details. I’m pleased my analysis on GBPUSD getting to 152.20 and EURUSD stagnating paid off.
My weekly goal (by the 16th) is 80+ pips as I will not be trading Wednesday for the majority of the day. It seems the market is transitionally indecisive with most pairs ranging within 50 pips. I will stay out of the market until FOMC release their minutes, and look forward to the market reaction for Thursday coupled with the BoJ interest rate decision. I’m finding it suprisingly difficult not to trade, let alone take a break from the charts.
gbp/jpy short 1.329 1.3275 1.3275 1.327 12/07/2010 08:47:00 10:00:00 second chance entry after retracement finished p 0.0015 entry was too early on the retrace, and I allowed teh trade to continue despite the 5/8 cross as the MACD had yet to cross – not ideal
gbp/usd long 1.4981 1.4992 1.499 1.4996 12/07/2010 10:55:00 11:17:00 5/8 cross with macd also on retrace p 0.0011 macd has crossed but it is still negative… aggressive trade as I’m also trading against the daily trend. this was an early exit – missed out on 20+ pips
gbp/usd long 1.5044 1.503 1.503 1.506 12/07/2010 13:01:00 14:24:00 l -0.0014 5 ma crossed 55ema with continued significant upward movement on the macds – also divergence on 15M to suggest a long – huge downward shift after quiet market
gbp/jpy short 1.3314 1.334 1.336 1.33 12/07/2010 14:27:00 14:39:00 5/8 cross but premature macd cross though still negative l -0.0026 this was a silly trade!
gbp/usd long 1.5074 1.5077 1.5077 1.509 12/07/2010 15:04:00 15:45:00 stopped out for some profit p 0.0003
eur/usd short 1.2527 1.2577 1.2577 1.248 13/07/2010 08:55:00 1h chart cross set stop to fib levels – stop level set at R3. 1.2595 is strong support l -0.005 retraced back… to find out why I should have been watching the 15m chart, I would’ve stopped out at about 1.2550 and saved 25 pips – a good trade!
gbp/usd long 1.507 1.5095 1.502 1.5095 13/07/2010 10:12:00 10:20:00 1hr chart macd R1 retrace completed p 0.0025 retrace at expected exit – good trade!
eur/usd long 1.2587 1.2595 1.2595 1.2605 13/07/2010 13:45:00 13:55:00 fibs and R1 found p 0.0008 good trade!
eur/usd long 1.2612 1.2619 1.26 1.2625 13/07/2010 13:55:00 14:00:00 broke R1 facing R2 p 0.0007 should have stayed in my longer term trade!
gbp/usd long 1.515 1.5159 1.5125 1.5212 13/07/2010 14:20:00 15:18:00 1h chart confirmed with macds – exited before possible retrace p 0.0009 should have waited for the retrace before entering – facing possible reversal and 10-20 pips down, nor did I consider the 2pm USA market opening!
eur/usd long 1.2631 1.2665 1.235 1.2645 13/07/2010 14:20:00 15:18:00 1h chart confirmed with macds – exited beyond limit and before any retrace p 0.0034 should have waited for the retrace before entering – facing possible reversal and 10-20 pips down
gbp/usd long 1.5168 1.5207 1.5156 1.525 13/07/2010 19:12:00 01:41:00 1h chart with 5/8 and macds in agreement, fibs outstretched for full reversal – nearest decent resistance seems to be 1.5250 but risky as it is an out-of hours trade dependent on asia carrying the trend p 0.0039 good trade on the hourly chart. This was a good trade to use a moving stop loss. I still profited despite missing my target my 10 pips. The 15m chart is now showing divergence, so that potential downtrend may now start depending on uk employment figures which I anticipate to be much worse than the conservative estimate.
aud/cad long 0.9094 0.9112 20:01:00 21:22:00 strong daily uptrend with .618 retracement appearing strong from .9038 to .9113 – bad news is 5pip spread from broker! p 0.0018 this was a bad trade on the 15 minute chart, but good on the 1hr chart with the trend and the retrace coming back completely as expected. I usually base any strong uptrend on aud from the european session with the aud session to carry it on a spot trade
I had a total of 5 trades today resulting in a 46 pip profit. It started fairly slow, but I perservered on my bearish outlook on eurusd, with mixed spot feeling on gbpusd. I also traded audcad (instead of usdcad because I’m not as familiar with the charts and knowing australia trading is asleep so there is little economic resistance from within that country)
My trades were as follows:
eur/usd short 1.269 1.2705 1.2725 1.267 09/07/2010 08:45:00 09:15:00 confirmed 5/8 cross with push through 1.2720 barrier failed l -0.0015
gbp/usd long 1.5179 1.5184 1.5129 1.52 09/07/2010 08:45:00 11:00:00 retrace done on uptrend – 2nd chance to enter p 0.0005
eur/usd short 1.2683 1.267 1.2677 1.2668 09/07/2010 09:48:00 11:10:00 confirmed macd crosses with 5/8 cross p 0.0013
gbp/usd short 1.5176 1.5159 1.522 1.517 09/07/2010 11:33:00 12:40:00 confirmed macd crosses with 5/8 cross p 0.0017
aud/cad short 0.9072 0.9031 0.904 0.9055 09/07/2010 12:23:00 15:01:00 post news with good CA unemployment two solid red candles on the 15m chart with macd trends set below 0 0.0041
You’ll see that I shifted my bias relatively quickly on GBPUSD from long to short. I changed this after the economic data for GBP caused some jitters. The stops were obviously premature in hindsight though I preserved my capital and still had a profitable day. I closed out of my audcad trade because I’m on the wrong side of a rollover and I’m uncertain on how the asian markets will react to the economic data over the weekend and early Monday.
Despite my profit yesterday going against the long-term trend, the bears have certainly returned to the market today. After some poor news, the fundamentals kicked in and are keeping the pressure downside with what I think is very strong resistance on the weekly/monthly charts
GBPUSD short at 10:40am for 1.5158 – closed at 12:30 at 1.5140
This stopped out at about 12:30pm with the 5/8 MA cross over on the 15 min chart – gain of 18 pips
I am not seeing much develop on the EURUSD pair so I’ve stayed out of that today so far.
I entered long on the eurusd about 15 minutes after the announcement and 30 mins before the briefing.
EurUsd long at 13:00 for 1.2664 – closed at 14:53 at 1.2680 by stopping out with 16 pips.
While watching my EurUsd trade I missed out on another nice GBPUSD short mid-afternoon after the downtrend continued. Would’ve been a smooth 25 pips… can’t get em all!
Today I entered two long trades on a relatively quite news day:
GBP/USD – 1.5104 at 10:45am GMT – closed at 12:51 GMT with 15 pips
EUR/USD – 1.2572 at 11:30am GMT – closed at 12:30 GMT with 15 pips
Even though this is a demo account I’m trading for the next several weeks, I found the psychological discipline to stay in the trade after just one candle nearly unbearable! However, i’m glad I’ve stayed in it, instead of just bagging 10 pips between the two, I’m currently at 60+ pips for the day on two trades. I’ll stay in them until the charts change, or profit for either one shrinks to 15 pips.
The retracement wiped away a good chunk of profit, so instead of 60 pips I closed both positions and came away with 30 pips. I’m now looking for new long entries on these pairs.
I found another entry for long on eur/usd at 14:30 opening at 1.2593 – the 5/8 is returning after retracing to the 125.63 mark. currently just a few pips up but it is looking like this may turn in to a carry trade. I also re-entered a GBP-USD long after it continued to crawl up the chart (I probably should have stayed in my previous trade!)
GBP/USD – 1.5183 at 15:15 GMT – closed at 16:15 GMT with 10 pips
EUR/USD – 1.2593 at 14:30 GMT – closed at 16:30 GMT with 28 pips
Total for the day: 60 pips
